When will AI exceed Human Performance?
“When looms weave by themselves, man’s slavery will end.” —Aristotle, 4th century BC
Imagine the vision he had at that point in time
Researchers believe there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years and of automating all human jobs in 120 years, with Asian respondents expecting these dates much sooner than Americans.
What is AI actually?
Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a computer or a robot controlled by a computer to do tasks that are usually done by humans because they require human intelligence and discernment.
Types of Artificial Intelligence:
Weak AI or Narrow AI: Narrow AI is a type of AI which is able to perform a dedicated task with intelligence.
General AI: General AI is a type of intelligence that could perform any intellectual task with efficiency like a human.
Super AI: - Super AI is AI that surpasses human intelligence and ability. It's also known as Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) or Super Intelligence. It's the best at everything — maths, science, medicine, hobbies, you name it. Even the brightest human minds cannot come close to the abilities of super AI.
Artificial intelligence is changing the world and doing it at breakneck speed. The promise is that intelligent machines will be able to do every task better and more cheaply than humans. Rightly or wrongly, one industry after another is falling under its spell, even though few have benefited significantly so far.
And that raises an interesting question: when will artificial intelligence exceed human performance? More specifically, when will a machine do our job and going to replace us?
Stanford is hosting an event named “Intelligence Augmentation: AI Empowering People to Solve Global Challenges.”
The notion that, at its best, AI will augment rather than replace humans has become an influential narrative in the field of artificial intelligence today.
Unfortunately, it is also deeply misguided. If we are to effectively prepare ourselves for the impact that AI will have on society in the coming years, it is important for us to be more clear-eyed on this issue.
It is not hard to understand why people are receptive to a vision of the future in which AI’s primary impact is to augment human activity. At an elemental level, this vision leaves us, humans, in control, unchallenged at the top of the cognitive food chain. It requires no deep, uncomfortable reconceptualizations from us about our place in the world. AI is, according to this line of thinking, just one more tool we have cleverly created to make our lives easier, like the wheel or the internal combustion engine.
Today, we have an answer of sorts thanks to the work of Katja Grace at the Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford and a few pals. To find out, these guys asked the experts. They surveyed the world’s leading researchers in artificial intelligence by asking them when they think intelligent machines will better humans in a wide range of tasks. And many of the answers are something of a surprise.
Grace and co asked them all—1,634 of them—to fill in a survey about when artificial intelligence would be better and cheaper than humans at a variety of tasks. The experts predict that AI will outperform humans in the next 10 years in tasks such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high school essays (by 2026), and driving trucks (by 2027).
But many other tasks will take much longer for machines to master. AI won’t be better than humans at working in retail until 2031, able to write a bestselling book until 2049, or capable of working as a surgeon until 2053.
The experts go on to predict a 50 percent chance that AI will be better than humans at more or less everything in about 45 years.
That’s the kind of prediction that needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. The 40-year prediction horizon should always raise alarm bells. According to some energy experts, cost-effective fusion energy is about 40 years away—but it always has been. It was 40 years away when researchers first explored fusion more than 50 years ago. But it has stayed a distant dream because the challenges have turned out to be more significant than anyone imagined.
The world is changing fast, pulled by technological advancements and conceptual paradigm shifts. Artificial intelligence (AI) is a typical case in that its development has already changed people's lives, and more changes, possibly revolutionary transitions, are about to come shortly. We are using so many technologies related to AI, such as smartphones, social media with algorithms pleasing us, and booking systems while witnessing the continuous technological evolution taking place in an unprecedented way.
We can hardly deny that AI-related technologies, e.g., big data and machine intelligence, have pushed our daily lives and future in an unprecedented way. According to many previous studies, education, jobs, health care, utility, and environmental protection are topics connected to AI and considered by more people
Envisioning the future
While some people are excited to see all that AI can achieve, others have warned about possible dangers and social impacts it could have. For now,are the future is not clear, but we should approach it with excitement and an open mind, trying to benefit from all AI has made possible, while continuing to value our own intelligence and emotions. We need to appreciate what we are all capable of, and see that the question is not about choosing between AI and humans, but rather about building a future of collaboration where we have both – human intelligence and artificial intelligence – coexisting and functioning together.
Are we replaceable?
No matter how many developments we see in the wide use of AI, it is still not possible for AI to replace human intelligence. The core aspect of human intelligence remains our ability to consider ourselves and others, feel empathy, make decisions based not only on data but also instinct, and read the emotions of people around us in order to adjust our behavior, a key aspect of human interaction.
The question of whether AI will replace human workers assumes that AI and humans have the same qualities and abilities — but, in reality, they don't. AI-based machines are fast, more accurate, and consistently rational, but they aren't intuitive, emotional, or culturally sensitive. Moreover human can never create the destroyer of themselves.
So AI is definitely the revolution in today’s world but no way can replace HUMAN ever.
Dr. Bikash Sharma
Role: Co-Founder of Big Brain Brilliance Knowledge Hub and DiAS Driving Aspiration
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